Fully reconciled GDP forecasts from Income and Expenditure sides


Luisa Bisaglia, Tommaso Di Fonzo, Daniele Girolimetto


May 2020

   Publication details

Book of Short Papers SIS 2020. Ed. by A. Pollice, N. Salvati, and F. Schirripa Spagnolo. Pearson, pp. 951–956. ISBN: 9788891910776


We propose a complete reconciliation procedure, resulting in a ‘one number forecast’ of the GDP figure, coherent with both Income and Expenditure sides’ forecasted series, and evaluate its performance on the Australian quarterly GDP series, as compared to the original proposal by Athanasopoulos et al. (2019)1.

  • 1 Athanasopoulos, G., Gamakumara, P., Panagiotelis, A., Hyndman, R.J., Affan, M. (2019), Hierarchical Forecasting, in Fuleky, P. (ed.), Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data, Cham, Springer, 689–719.